November Minutes: Market expectations for December hike won’t budge

November 23, 2016 04:18 PM

As we wrote this morning, the November FOMC meeting minutes are essentially moot at this point.  Against the backdrop of a flurry of Committee members’ comments – including the Chairman herself – suggesting a rate rise was imminent, the market is now pricing in a December hike with 100% certainty. 

Still, a few notable items in the November FOMC meeting minutes to digest ahead of the holiday:

There remains much debate among the Committee members over the need for preemptive Fed action.  Some argued that risks to economic and financial stability could “increase over time” if the labor market overheated, and furthermore that maintaining low interest rates for an extended period could lead to a further mispricing of risk. 

Of course, other suggested that given the sill-lackluster pace of activity in the overall economy, allowing the unemployment rate to fall below its longer-run normal level for a time could result in “favorable supply-side effects,” as well as potentially “hasten” the return of inflation back to the Committee’s longer-term 2% objective. 

About the Author

Lindsey is the Chief Economist for Sterne Agee, specializing in the research and analysis of economic trends and activity, world economies, financial markets and fiscal policies. In addition to more than 10 years of experience, Piegza has published several academic papers in journals such as Harvard Business Review as well as in textbooks published by the Kellogg Graduate School of Management. Often quoted in the business press, Piegza is a regular guest on CNBC and Fox Business as well as national radio and other business news outlets.