Crude higher ahead of OPEC decision

September 28, 2016 11:37 AM

Iran is pushing for more market share as it tries to reach its pre-sanction levels while Saudi is willing to cut its output now, knowing that it has probably reached peak capacity and ahead of lower seasonal demand in the final months of the year. But unlike earlier in the year, Iran is a lot closer to its 4 million barrel per day target, so there is an increased probability that the OPEC may be able to reach an agreement either today or more likely in November.

If and when an agreement is reached, I would expect oil prices to stage a sharp relief rally. However there is also scope for disappointment, which could see oil prices drop in a knee-jerk, algo-driven, reaction. Both oil contracts are effectively in consolidation mode as prices bounce off the converging trend lines. The technical outlook should become clearer when oil prices eventually breakout of their consolidative ranges. See the charts, below for details.   

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Fawad is an experienced analyst and economist having been involved in the financial markets since 2010. He provides retail and professional traders worldwide with succinct fundamental & technical analysis on his own website at