Round one of the U.S. presidential debate is over and as expected big punches were exchanged from both sides, but clearly no knockout blows were landed. Although polls were showing different outcomes of who won the debate, financial markets obviously declared Clinton as the winner.
Asian shares recovered some of yesterday’s losses and European stocks opened higher, meanwhile U.S. futures are also indicating a positive open. However, the best financial asset proxy to the U.S. presidential race is the Mexican Peso which rose by more than 1.5% against the U.S. dollar after declining to a new record low yesterday. The higher the Mexican currency goes suggests higher probability for Clinton reaching the White House as Trump repeatedly raged against globalisation and free trade agreements.
The Aussie, Kiwi and Yen also supported the opinion that Hillary Clinton won the first presidential debate. The high yielding commodity currencies are favoured when appetite to risk is high due to carry trade opportunities, while the Yen gets sold out when signs of risk aversion fades. However, I believe there is more volatility to come with 41 days left to the presidential election day.
Oil prices saw some profit taking after trading sharply higher Monday with nervous investors awaiting the outcome of OPEC’s unofficial meeting. Markets are still unconvinced that an agreement will be reached with Iran downplaying yesterday the chances of OPEC and non-OPEC producers sealing a deal to curb output.
Considering there is lot of pessimism over reaching a deal, I believe the magnitude for prices moving higher is far larger than moving lower. The bad news is already priced in, which will limit the downside, but if a surprise deal comes out, get ready for a strong rally.