30-Year Treasury bonds
Choppy trade persisted all week as the Treasury market regained its footing and ground higher Friday to recover Thursday’s losses and post a new weekly high.
The USU traded in a below average 3-09-point weekly range and settled up 1-13-points on the week and up 1-06-points on the session at 172-31. Although I was looking for consolidation higher on Friday the long bond exceeded my upper daily expectations (172-18/20) and quickly tested my revised intra-day update boundary at 173-21/25.
No change to the technical outlook as all three trends are bullish as the market is expected to consolidate until the summer doldrums dissipate. For the week just like the past few weeks the market should consolidate and trade between 171-01/170-31. Today USU should trade between 172-13/09 or 171-25 (Thursday’s settlement) and 173-21 or 173-30/174-00.
Support: 172-09, 171-25, 171-21, 171-18, 171-04, 170-31/28, 170-18, 169-31, 169-05, 168-15, 168-05, 167-20, 166-13, 165-25, 165-20/19, 165-04 and 164-30 (pre-release June Employment report).
Resistance: 173-21, 173-25, 173-30, 174-14/17, 174-28, 175-11, 176-07 (pre-release July Employment report), 176-30, 177-09/11, 177-29 and 181-09.
10-Year Treasury notes
Last week the 10-year ground higher as the note traded in choppy thin daily ranges and rebounded Friday to test my minimum upper weekly boundary target at 132-29.
The TYU traded in a below average 1-03+-point weekly range and settled up 12+-ticks on the week and up 15+-ticks on the session at 132-17. Last week’s price action does little to influence the technical outlook as the Treasury market has been trending sideways and consolidated near the middle of the past six-weeks’ of trade (132-29+).
The short-term trend is neutral with a bearish bias, while the intermediate and long-term trends are bullish and target 135-29. For the week the TYU should trade between 131-26/24 or 131-18/16 and either 132-29 or 133-04/08. If the upper level is broken the TYU should test 133-16/18 and either 133-28 or 134-07/10. If the lower level is broken the note should test 131-02/130-29. Today the TYU should trade between 132-11/09 and 132-29/133-00. If the lower level is broken the Note could sink to 132-02/01.
Support: 132-11/09, 132-02/00, 131-28, 131-24, 131-18/16, 131-02, 130-30/29, 130-20/19, 130-02/01 (pre-release June Employment report), 129-16, 129-11, 129-07/05, 128-28, 128-24, 128-14 and 128-01.
Resistance: 132-24 (minor), 132-29/30, 133-04, 133-08, 133-16/18 (pre-release July Employment report), 133-28, 133-30/134-00, 134-07/10, 134-30, 135-16 and 135-29.