Treasury report for the week of July 18

July 18, 2016 08:11 AM

30-year Treasury bond
Early last week the 30-year Treasury bond posted and rejected its new all-time contract high and steadily ground lower throughout the week and easily surpassed my lower weekly boundary targets (173-25/22) and tested levels I thought were only a possibility and not likely at 171-18(50% retracement of the 3-week upmove). The USU traded in an above average 5-30-point weekly range and settled down 5-09-points on the week and down 1-11-points on the session at 171-21. As impressive and unexpected as this move is the long-end maintains its bullish technical outlook as all three trends point to higher prices. It will take a move and two consecutive settlements below 170-18 and 169-31 to turn the short-term trend neutral with a bearish bias. For the week the USU should recover and trade between either 170-18 possibly 169-31 and 174-08/12.  Today the USU should trade between 171-13 or 170-28 and 172-23 or 173-00.   
 
Support can be found at 171-18, 171-13, 170-28/26, 170-18, 169-31, 169-05, 168-15, 168-05, 167-20, 166-13, 165-25, 165-20/19, 165-04 and 164-30 (pre-release June Employment report).  Resistance should be met at 172-13/14, 172-23, 173-00, 173-15,174-08, 174-12, 174-29/31, 175-02, 175-11, 175-22, 176-08, 176-30, 177-09/11, 179-13 and 179-22.    
 
10-year Treasury note
The 10-year steadily sold-off after posting a new contract high and settlement last Monday and steadily ground lower and settled below 132-14/12 and 132-06 (my maximum lower weekly boundary projections). The TYU traded in an above average 2-03-point weekly range and settled down 1-29-points on the week and down 16+-ticks on the session at 131-28. Another settlement today below 132-06 (0.382 retracement of the 11-week upmove) would shift the short-term trend from bullish to neutral with a bearish bias, and encourage more downside price discovery. However until then the Bulls cling to waning momentum as the Note should trade between at least 131-18/16 and 132-20/24 possibly 132-30/133-02. If the lower level is broken the Bond should test 131-04/130-29. Today the TYU should trade between either 131-28/24 or 131-18 and at least 132-11/12 if not 132-20 or 132-24 (same targets as Friday intra-day update).
 
Support can be found at 131-28/24, 131-18/16, 131-02, 130-30/29, 130-20/19, 130-02/01 (pre-release June Employment report), 129-16, 129-11, 129-07/05, 128-28, 128-24, 128-14 and 128-01. Resistance should be met at 132-11/12, 132-20, 132-24, 132-30/133-00, 133-10, 133-22, 133-25, 133-30, 134-07/10, 134-30, 135-16 and 135-29.
 

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