Wheat was lower after trading both sides remained unchanged. The market was acting sold out for much of the day, but could not avoid moving lower in sympathy with the big losses in soybeans. Reports of great yields from the harvest in the Midwest and Great Plains, and as ideas of great yields in Europe and Russia hit the market again yesterday. Some reports from Kansas this week suggested that wheat was getting hurt from recent heavy rains. Some producers are talking about reduced test weights and very low protein levels. Some of this wheat will probably need to be sold as feed, but elevators and mills are currently looking to blend the wheat with the best quality wheat for greater volumes of acceptable product. Current basis levels in the region imply that wheat will need to be used as feed, anyway, as the basis levels are real low European and Russian crops have also seen very good rains this year, and will likely have big yields but low protein levels as well. The world price for wheat will likely remain low in futures markets as the wheat now needs to be priced as a feed to compete with corn and other feed grains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should be mostly dry. Temperatures should be above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather, but a few showers are posible today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 421, 416, and 410. September, with resistance at 439, 444, and 453. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 410, 406, and 399, with resistance at 422, 431, and 440. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 494, 488, and 482 September, and resistance is at 509, 512, and 516 September.
Futures were sharply higher once again. Funds seem to be the best buyers and appear to be liquidating positions. Funds and large speculators have been the large short in rice for months, but the massive liquidation seen in other markets appears to be happening in rice as well as funds look to take profits and cut losses. There was no real demand news, and the weather remains mostly good for crops. Sources in Texas and the Gulf Coast report very good growing conditions. There has been more than enough rain in these areas and the crops are looking very good. Producers are currently expecting top yields. Conditions remain more variable to the north, but USDA keeps showing overall very good crop ratings. Southeast Asian growing conditions are improving with better rains.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1,114 September. Support is at 1,054, 1,045, and 1,031 September, with resistance at 1,094, 1,100, and 1,120 September.
DJ Thailand to Put Up 3.81 Million Tons of Rice for Sale/Auction July 25 -- Market Talk
0926 GMT [Dow Jones] Thailand is set to unload more rice from state warehouses before the end of July. Around 2.91 million tons of good quality rice will be either directly sold to rice exporters or put on auction July 25, while 900,000 tons of low-quality rice will only be allocated for auction, according to Duangporn Rodphaya, director general of the Foreign Trade Department at the ministry. "The drought has lowered rice product and while there is market demand for rice for consumption and the industrial sector also wants a lot of rice in the government's stock to substitute imports," adds Ms. Duangporn. "We cannot say if all will be taken but it must be more than 70%…because rice supply in the market is low and the new harvest may come out later than usual because of drought."
DJ FAO Rice Index Falls in June on Japonica Rice Moves -- Market Talk
1007 GMT [Dow Jones] The Food and Agriculture All Rice Price index fell marginally in June on month due to drops in prices for Japonica rice, the organization says in its note. It notes that, with the exception of Vietnam, where harvest progress and subdued demand kept prices under pressure, tight availabilities continued to lend support to quotations across most Asian origins. It adds that a stronger baht contributed to the strength in Thailand, with pressure only reined in by limited buying interest and the prospect for improved availabilities from large government stock auctions.