Brexit fallout: What to expect next
Ever since Britain voted to leave the European Union the markets have gone wild. When will things calm down and what's to follow?
What do you expect to be the fallout from Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union?
- Reduced profits of U.S. and China corporations that invest in the UK to access the UK free-trade it has with the European Union.
- Reset of UK investment arrangements could have a cooling effect on the region that may erode confidence, investment and financial flows.
- EU economy is one of the largest in the world and a slowdown there could mean a global slowdown.
- UK visitors to EU may need a visa and expats living in EU may see health treatment and other benefit agreements dropped.
- Moody's cut Britain's credit rating outlook to "negative," saying the vote to pull out of the EU could hurt its economic prospects.
- There will be a tremendous bureaucratic process for the UK to exit the EU.
- The UK will not automatically be leaving the EU.
- According to Article 50 of the 2007 EU Lisbon Treaty, leaving from the EU requires 72% of continuing member states representing at least 65% of their population and the consent of the European Parliament and sets a two-year time limit for reaching a deal.
- If needed, the UK could ask for an extension beyond the two years, but all the remaining 27 countries would have to agree.
- Michael Emerson at the Centre for European Policy Studies estimates that Britain would have to delete some 5,000 regulations, directives and decisions from its statute books relating to the EU market for goods, services, capital and people.
- UK would have to negotiate new trade agreements and extricate itself from about 1,100 trade agreements the EU has with other countries and no trade deals could be signed until the UK has completely left the EU.
- A Scotland or Northern Ireland move for independence would create uncertainty with negotiators over what trade parameters they are negotiating.
- UK industries may push to impose tariffs on imports, which may increase prices in the UK and tariffs on imports from the UK.
- Large European banks may move banking and trading operations out of the UK.
- EU and ECB will make the UK leaving difficult to discourage other countries leaving the EU.
- If other countries leave the EU, the European Central Bank quantitative-easing program of buying the bonds of countries that may choose to leave very challenging.
- Fed will probably delay interest rate increases.