Today's grains: weather, setbacks and dollar gains


Wheat

Wheat finished sharply lower on Monday following a higher dollar trade and good rains moving through parts of Kansas and Nebraska improving crop conditions. There wasn’t one major theme today driving market values but end of the month weakness appeared to be a common theme for grains and for outside markets. The stock market is trading lower at the typing of this and the energies are also under some pressure.

With the funds sitting with a rather large short position that they added to last week one has to question will new money this month drive values back near their recent lows. Wheat has tested the low end of its technical range several times and we could see a move that’s 10-15 lower from here and still be within the sideways trading range. It’s likely that the harvest is moving along in parts of rain soaked Texas but recent rains continue to add to the idea that quality may be a major issue with parts of the state. 1-5 day precipitation still has massive amounts of rain in Texas and Oklahoma, which could cause some quality issues with the hard red wheat but right now it’s still too early in the game to say this story holds water. Right now we will look for the market to move sideways and continue to hold the range until we technically make a move otherwise.

Ratings expected to be 61% GTE
Planting for spring wheat should be complete after today’s numbers are released

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