Not so good news

April 11, 2016 08:31 AM


Christine Lagarde from the IMF told us on Tuesday about the “not so good news.”

She said it was at a delicate stage. “We have growth; we are not in a crisis. The not-so-good news is that the recovery remains too slow, too fragile, and risks to its durability are increasing. Growth has been too low for too long, too many people were simply not feeling it.”

What did you expect her to say? If she would’ve said the truth, the market might’ve crashed. She said what Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen are not allowed to say. She said what President Obama and Angela Merkel will not say. By the way, did you see Obama talking about how “well” his recovery is going? There is so much madness, anger, hatred and lies it’s amazing markets have gone along with it for so long. But you see, they can’t keep a lid on it permanently because the smart money is…well…. smart.

I’ll spare you my whole speech about the longer term because you’ve heard it many times, but what I have to say is that with everything swirling around there will always come a time to pay the piper. My view of these markets is the following: As long as the DAX stays light years from last year’s ridge I can’t get long-term bullish. America doesn’t have the problems Europe does; Europe is toast in that regard.

I believe Europe will lead the world lower. But for now, going forward, risk was high for a hit at any time, given they missed the Gann window in March even as Australia nailed it. The market continued to give us any number of time stumbling blocks—and it finally happened.

This one hit the Dow over last weekend. I didn’t report it last week because I had to see how Monday’s bar would turn out. It’s relatively easy when these time windows hit during the trading week when the market is open, but the market will account for real time, which includes evenings and weekends.

In this case the time element as converted to degrees in a circle had the Dow hitting 26180dg over last weekend. A week ago, Friday’s marginal high held on Monday by roughly five points and then they backed it off the rest of the week. There is a time window working here even as it is not the Gann seasonal window we’ve discussed for a long time.

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About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.