Will the stock market rally end here?

March 14, 2016 08:55 AM

The rally continues and we are getting to the most important sequence of the entire year.

I can’t believe it’s been nine years since the first edition of Breakthrough Strategies came out. One thing we didn’t cover in that book was the Gann Master Time Date at the March seasonal change point. You can look at many commodity charts and not understand the turn because it won’t correspond to a number you’ll recognize, but when you line it up with the Gann date you’ll get clarity where there was none. Consequently, it’s the most important date of the entire year when it comes to financial markets.

That window starts on Friday as some charts can turn a few days before or after. The bigger question is whether the stock market rally will end here. Anyone who tells you for certain is lying, so let’s leave it at this: markets only turn a few times a year and there is an excellent chance that it can turn in the next week. If it doesn’t turn here, the next best chance is in May when we hit 377 weeks to the 2009 bottom. One of the more interesting asides of the past week is the seventh anniversary or birthday of that bottom.

I heard many pundits say this bull is now seven years old. It hasn’t occurred to most that the bull might have ended last year. In fact, markets began to top on May 20, which was nearly 10 months ago. Imagine a market peaking 10 months ago yet very few are aware of it. You could interpret it as the bear has done its job so well that no one is aware he’s there. It wouldn’t surprise me because we live in a society that is dangerously asleep to most of the problems and challenges we face.

Many charts still look decent as the market healed on Friday, but tech has been weakening and look at biotech in particular:

Most sectors look better, including the Transports. The SPX has made it all the way to the 200dma. The NDX is still short of it; there lies the divergence. One of the major themes of the past few weeks is to see where divergences do develop. Last week was also the beginning of the cycle season as the market hit 161 days off the July 20 pivot, which was a peak for many charts. Markets did respond, but not strong enough. Perhaps some of them might turn into the end of this rally with this BTK chart remaining a candidate.

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About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.