ECB recap: Better late than never for euro bears

March 10, 2016 08:28 AM

After massively disappointing traders’ high hopes back in December, “Super” Mario Draghi and company were not going to make the same mistake again.

Expectant traders and analysts were looking for the European Central Bank to cut its deposit rate by 10bps and increase its quantitative easing program by €10B per month, but the so-called “whisper numbers” were even more aggressive than that. Regardless, the ECB busted out its big bazooka at the conclusion of today’s monetary policy meeting, enacting a series of aggressive proposals.

In the words of the ECB itself, these are the six actions taken by the central bank:

“At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

1. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 16 March 2016.

2. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 16 March 2016.

3. The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.40%, with effect from 16 March 2016.

4. The monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme will be expanded to €80 billion starting in April.

5. Investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations established in the euro area will be included in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases.

6. A new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched, starting in June 2016. Borrowing conditions in these operations can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit facility.”

In other words, the central bank drastically exceeded the markets expectations for easing. In terms of the most widely-watched changes, the ECB cut its deposit rate by the anticipated 10bps and expanded its QE program by €20B per month, twice as much as traders were looking for. Additionally, Draghi and company reduced two of its other key interest rates, expanded its universe of eligible securities to purchase through its QE program, and enacted another series of operations to increase bank liquidity.

This is the “big bazooka” that many traders were expecting to see back in December, and as the saying goes, “it’s better late than never” for euro bears. As we go to press, Dr. Draghi is taking the stage for his press conference, which will hopefully shed more light on the ECB’s decision.

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About the Author

Senior Technical Analyst for FaradayResearch. Matt has actively traded various financial instruments including stocks, options, and forex since 2005. Each day, he creates research reports focusing on technical analysis of the forex, equity, and commodity markets. In his research, he utilizes candlestick patterns, classic technical indicators, and Fibonacci analysis to predict market moves. Weller is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association.