E-minis may see short-term top

March 9, 2016 09:10 AM

The short-term analysis of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 based on the Cycle Projection Oscillator (CPO) indicate a sideways to higher move into Friday March 11 and then a down move into next week.

The S&P may have more upside potential going into the move as the CPO is showing it is still slightly oversold (see charts below). 

The Cycle Projection Oscillator (CPO) is a technical tool that uses complex algorithms to filter multiple cycles from historical data, combines them and gives a graphical representation of their productive behavior. The CPO methodology employs proprietary statistical techniques to obtain cyclical information from price data. Other proprietary frequency domain techniques are then employed to obtain the cycles embedded in the price.

In the CPO charts, the green line represents the detrended market price and the red line indicates the CPO projection (the bar charts shown above the CPO show the market’s trading in real-time).

The blue lines above and below the projection line represent a two-sigma move and indicate overbought and oversold territory.

About the Author

John Rawlins is a former member of the CBOT with more than 30 years of experience in trading and research. He co-developed the Cycle Projection Oscillator, which has been featured in Futures and numerous research reports, with an aerospace engineer to identify the dominant cycles in a data stream and project them into the future. Reach John at johnrawlins@msn.com. @cpopro1. You can reach John at johnrawlins@msn.com.