Live Cattle Fundamental Support
With Friday's Cattle on Feed report pretty much neutral across the board, the trade moved back into monitoring short-term fundamentals. There are two to six inch snows expected for parts of Colorado. Forecasters differ on whether Oklahoma and Texas will see the precipitation as either snows or rain.
At this afternoon's meeting with the brokers, we noted that there are some clear headwinds against bulls here. Last week was likely the smallest non-holiday kill week of the year. Cash cattle prices, at Friday's $133/$134, are exactly unchanged from one month ago. Cash beef however, is over $20 per cwt. cheaper.
On the charts the April and June contracts attempted to break out of the long term downtrend that has been in place since the summer. yesterday's higher trade on the weather, but later rejection of those highs, is not a bullish sign.
On the bullish side the afternoon showlist count, numbers that feedlots are offering to packers for next week's kill, was seen 15,000 head smaller than the previous week. Before you suggest that is a bullish keep in mind these are free market offerings. Packers can draw upon contracted numbers next week. Moves near $136 on the April are good sales points. This market may have one more push higher in the next few days but is darn near close to the seasonal peak for futures on March 4.