One chart depicts economic recovery is 100% fiction

February 9, 2016 03:47 PM

They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this chart is probably worth a lot more.  It illustrates how the BLS has been lying through its teeth over the past seven years. Then again anyone with a grain of common sense could figure out that the methodology the BLS employs is bound to create the illusion that all is well. They purposely discount individuals that have stopped looking for work in coming up with their unemployment numbers. Hence, the 5% figure is not an accurate reflection of the landscape. The chart below provides a more realistic view of the unemployed in the U.S.; in some areas we believe that the numbers could be more than 30%.

Another problem that is hardly addressed is that more than 6.6 million Americans work part-time jobs, but are desperately seeking full-time employment. This figure is significantly higher than the 4.5 million individuals who were working part-time before the Great Recession began.  A new phrase has been coined for this group: “involuntary Part- Time Workers.”

The final blow: Real wages have been declining for quite some time now. $22.41 today has the same purchasing power an hourly salary of $4.03 had in 1973. Median Income continues to drop; the middle-class has been decimated since the financial crisis of 2008, and this trend is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

Game plan  

Central bankers clearly understand the true nature of this so-called economic recovery, and that is why they will continue to inflate this asset bubble, and they will continue to do this till the masses revolt. The BOJ fired the latest shot in the “devalue or die” currency war games that are rippling across the globe and other central bankers are likely to take the same path because for now resistance is futile. The masses are too tired to revolt; they are overworked and underpaid, and so it will be a long winter before there is any hope of spring. The suggested strategy, therefore, is not to listen to the naysayers who predict gloom and doom at very twist and turn, but to use strong market pullbacks/corrections to open new positions in companies that are growing or in blue chips. For example, NTES, COST, RTN, MCD, etc. are stocks that will perform well over the long run.

Finally, it makes sense to deploy money into gold bullion as we have been stating for some time.  The downside is limited from here, but we would hold back from jumping into gold stocks until gold has confirmed that a bottom is in place. The minimum requirement for this would be a monthly close above $1200. 

About the Author

Sol Palha, with Tactical Investor, is a self-taught student of the markets and provides compelling insights into the markets by combing the key elements of mass psychology with the supreme elements of technical analysis. He has been studying the markets for over 18 years.