Thursday began by plunging 24 points from its pre-open high to new lows at 1871.00. Being early enough to attract counter-trend sponsorship, a reaction bounced back above prior lows. And then higher. A lot higher. The afternoon's bias-up signal target was exceeded to test 1927.25, with time for reacting down to 1911.00 through the close.
Overnight action's new info...
Thursday's closing dip extended down overnight. A lot lower, attacking 1876.00, which is 5 points within yesterday's low. And that's a 105-point round-trip in 20 hours.
In a week of least likelihoods, NOT already retracing all of yesterday's recovery would be surprising. Sarcasm aside, we first began discussing Wednesday morning the potential for a pattern of least likely paths, when Tuesday afternoon's rally was retraced despite holding up through the open. Bouncing yesterday morning wasn't unlikely, but testing both bias targets is rare, and trending the afternoon prior to expiration is a least likelihood, too. Expiration is no doubt a catalyst. It is a wild card, less about likelihoods and more about vulnerabilities. Where three-day holiday weekends often inhibit trending or else isolate it to the morning, trending into the close becomes a very real possibility. As with yesterday, the difference should be defined by whether the open is above 1881.00-1885.00, or below it.
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1881.00-1885.00 would be likely to trend down through the morning, next targeting 1856.00. Exiting the open above 1992.00 would be likely to trend back up.
Did I say 1881.00-1885.00? While its recovery through the open would still be bullish, that's become a little more difficult since another downleg is now testing 1863.00.
Air pocket pierced.
It's still early enough that counter-trend sponsorship can't yet be discounted. And it's singular direction overnight trending keeps open the door to post-open reversal. Oh, and this is expiration, so, wild card.
Counter-trend sponsorship being a no-show, and not immediately reversing overnight trending, could end the day sharply, sharply lower. The up/down-crash setup is in its crash window. Oh, and wild card.