The good news bad news aspect of today’s September employment situation report was dutifully illustrated in the market action in the S&P 500.
The report came out more than 100,000 jobs short when you combine the lower than expected nonfarm payrolls number with the downward revisions in the August report.
After a dramatic 45-point drop following the report, the market slowly climbed higher to make significant gains near the close of the day.
While the media and market has on occasion over-reacted to every single data point in recent months, trying to pinpoint a Fed rate hike, today’s miss was not insignificant. It marked a second consecutive month of lower than anticipated nonfarm payroll growth and showed zero growth in the important hourly earnings figure. Hourly earnings were forecast to grow by 0.2%.
The bad news is obvious and the good news—based on the market rebound—is that the terrible report is expected to kill any change of a rate cut in 2015. Whether that is true remains to be seen. It certainly means there will be no Fed intervention before the December meeting, which wasn’t expected anyway. However, there will be two more monthly employment reports before then and if the show a return of more robust job growth a December tightening could still be a possibility.