Quick dip, or long trip?

June 24, 2015 03:03 PM

Hovering optimistically above the lows

Low after low today took RSIs oversold, dooming each bounce to failure as the low's retest was required. The current 2101.25 low is no exception. Oversold RSIs there require its retest. Despite retracing all but 1 tick of its reaction up to 2105.50, the 2101.25 low requires a retest.

And that's despite another reaction up now testing 2105.00.

Back under 2103.25 (being tested now) would target 2097.25. It's too late for sellers to gain traction for their effort, since only the bias environment's exit was bearish while the final hour's entry was not. So, probing fresh lows today -- potentially down to 2097.25 -- could make fully expended sellers prone.

Bouncing any higher into the close is possible, but the ranging at session lows is not accumulative. Back above 2106.00 could test 2109.00 while only refueling sellers for a deeper drop tomorrow.

Having failed to bounce this morning or to hold 2113.50 support, trending down through Friday morning is now the premise. Thursday has two paths to recovering, which we'll discuss during the post-market Wrap. 

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.