More rice, more problems

Corn and oats                     

Corn moved lower on a higher U.S. dollar and on weaker commodities markets in general. Corn is almost planted now, but the areas where it is not in the ground will continue to see rains through the weekend. It is becoming increasingly likely that some corn area will be planted to soybeans, although the insurance dates have not been hit yet. These areas have seen too much rain and are trying to wait for drier weather. However, more rains are in the forecast by this weekend in the southern Midwest, Delta, and Southeast.

Corn is trying to form a seasonal bottom for a short term rally attempt that often happens one the crop is planted. The current good crop conditions imply that any rally will likely be limited in scope, but a push 15 to 30 cents higher is not imposible even with very good weather as speculators are currently short. Cool temperatures should return to western and central areas this week until warmer and wetter weather arrives for the long Memorial Day weekend.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in corn are mixed. Support is at 357, 356, and 352 July, and resistance is at 364, 370, and 371 July. Trends in oats are mixed to down with objectives of 228 and 219 July. Support is at 236, 231, and 225 July, and resistance is at 249, 256, and 258 July.


Soybeans and products     

Prices were lower as the U.S. dollar went higher. Soybean meal was the leader to the downside on reports of less consumption by poultry due to the bird flu being reported through the Midwest and increasingly in other parts of the country. The lost consumption is real, but temporary as flocks can be built back rapidly. But for the short term there could be more selling pressure in this market and also in soybeans.

There is an increasing possibility of more area planted to soybeans in southern areas as it is getting late to plant corn. It should be drier and cooler this week, but more showers are possible again as temperatures start to turn warmer this weekend. Ideas are that the U.S. soybeans crop is about half planted. Futures will probably make a near term low very soon as the crop planting progress expands and gets completed, but up side potential for prices should be very limited given the strong world data, unless the United States develops a weather-related problem.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in soybeans are down with objectives of 913 July. Support is at 935, 924, and 912 July, and resistance is at 950, 961, and 964 July. Trends in soybean meal are mixed. Support is at 301.00, 300.00, and 295.00 July, and resistance is at 309.00, 310.00, and 313.00 July. Trends in soybean oil are down with objectives of 3190 and 3090 July. Support is at 3200, 3170, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3240, 3275, and 3305 July.

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About the Author

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.