The April Fools' agreement?

Daily Energy Markets Analysis

Iran nuclear talks go into overtime and if they get a deal done today it will be forever known as the "April Fools' agreement." This may or may not be my commentary of what I think is the wisdom of a deal or those whom negotiated the deal, where the United States seems desperate to get a deal--any kind of a deal. Of course, the point is whether Iran can be trusted when they don't even want to get rid of their nuclear material and still want to enrich uranium in an underground bunker. This is a joke, is it not?

The other sticking point is that of how quickly sanctions are lifted. The Iranians who got rewarded with a loosening of the sanctions just for coming to the negotiating table want sanctions lifted immediately if they sign a deal. The Unietd States and world powers on the other hand want a gradual lifting of sanctions so they can gage Iran's compliance. They also want to reserve the right to pull sanctions back if the Iranians fail to follow the rules. Despite these obstacles the Russians and the Iranians are saying that progress is being made.  

Even if the sanctions are lifted immediately, it will take Iran months to ramp up production. In the meantime tankers filled with Iranian oil would come onto the market quickly, but if the OPEC cartel lives up to its agreement then other producers should cut back on production and allow Iran to pump their quota and regain their market share. OPEC currently is happily taking that share as their production is at near record highs! Reuters estimates that Iranian production is currently around 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd)--sanctions limit exports to 1 million bpd--and has around 30 million barrels of crude on its fleet of oil tankers ready to be sold if possible.

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About the Author

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor.