London’s Financial Times called the string of rising stock prices the most unloved bull market in history, casting doubt on its foundation. However, on the seventh anniversary of benchmark lows, it remains hard to question its duration or ignore the fact that prices have risen threefold in the meantime.
Nevertheless, test its mettle as they must, investors have found reason over the years to take profit and find a better entry point. The plight of emerging market currencies could provide the next setback. The dire state of the Brazilian economy coupled with the equivalent of a Bronx cheer back at President Dilma Rouseff in response to her weekend pep talk to the populace has only accelerated negativity towards the nation’s assets. The Brazilian currency is sinking in response versus the dollar.
Meanwhile, the Mexican peso is also collapsing against its northern neighbor. Stock prices in both countries are suffering and are likely to feel the pressure from any upside for U.S. yields.
For now there appears to be an inbuilt pressure valve: As U.S. stocks sink, yields are finding solace from appetite due to risk aversion and ignoring further signs of labor market strength. The question is what will happen if U.S. stocks take the lead–to the downside–exacerbating global stock market selling and testing recent support.
Chart shows currencies have not yet broken the equity rally