Why the ultra bears have it wrong
Crude oil bears are getting even more bearish with some now calling for oil at $10 a barrel. Yet many of these exceedingly bearish calls are coming after many missed the majority of the downside move in the first place. They point to sluggish global demand and the path to record global oil inventories, both of which were true when oil traded $60 a barrel higher than it is today. Despite not being bearish enough in the first place, now they seem to want to compensate by getting even more bearish now.
The Ultra bears are missing a key fundamental factor, Global central bankers do not want oil to continue to crash. Oh, sure, all of them will tout the benefits of a lower oil price, but the truth is that if prices fall too far it would add to deflationary expectations. That is something central banks across the globe are going to fight against in full force.
Yesterday's selloff and later retracement is a reminder of why this is key. As Greece looked like they were going to walk away from talks with the Euroszone oil prices plummeted. The reason was that a Greek exit from the Eurozone would complicate European Union efforts to fight deflation. When later in the day reports came out that Greece was going to ask for an extension of its loan, oil and products soared back. Once again the trade has been duped by the painful political process the EU has to go through.
It also helped that it was option expiration day and big -ime bearish bets had to be covered quickly as the bears best short-term hope--a Greek exit from the Eurozone--was kicked down the road.