Florida's OJ production potential unchanged

February 12, 2015 10:43 AM

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice

Futures were lower and made new lows for the move in reaction to the USDA production estimates that showed little change in Florida production potential. Production is down from previous years, but more than enough due to weaker domestic demand. Selling was seen as temperatures this weekend do not appear likely to get cold enough to damage fruit or trees. The weather remains good in Florida, with dry and warm conditions being reported. Cool temperatures are forecast for this weekend, but no damaging cold is expected. Brazil is expected to turn drier again later this week and into the weekend.


Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal most of the week, but near to below normal starting Friday. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 130.00 and 124.00 March. Support is at 133.00, 131.00, and 126.00 March, with resistance at 138.00, 140.00, and 141.50 March.


Futures markets were sharply lower in Sao Paulo on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to a weaker Real against the U.S. dollar. Talk of the weakness in the real was seen in most of the financial press in the U.S. yesterday. London and New York closed narrowly mixed. Most eyes are still on Brazil, and the forecasts now call for drier weather again. Crops have had beneficial precipitaion in recent weeks, but will need regular rainfall to ensure good production this year after the drought of last year.

The areas of Brazil affected by dry weather are more general than last year and extend into northeast Brazil robusta areas. Charts show that New York prices are holding some key support areas, but price action remains weak. London charts appear slightly weaker, but London should be able to hold to the current trading range.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.260 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 143.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average mostly near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 159.00, 158.00, and 152.00 March, and resistance is at 165.00, 170.00 and 171.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1925, 1905, and 1890 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1970, and 1990 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 194.00, and 191.00 March, and resistance is at 198.00, 203.00, and 204.00 March.

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About the Author

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.