I see a technical formation on the daily chart below that could very telling.
Fundamentally, I'm reading from Hightower morning commentary that everything from the emergency Euro group meeting tomorrow, to the Shanghai Composite, to the South American crops, to the strong demand from China, could all possibly be impacting the bean market. For good measure I am going to throw in the kitchen sink and call it a day.
Seriously, the fact that the Hightower morning commentary stated that, "It's obvious that many farmers in the Delta and the southeast United States are expected to shift acres to soybeans. With a minor decline in the United States carryout expected today, historical evidence to suggest U.S. demand will rotate lower at the end of February, and large South American and U.S. acreage ahead, the fundamental trend of the market continues to be overwhelmingly bearish..." is enough for this bear.
Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this chart below. They are the 9- (red line), 20- (green line) and the 50- (black line) day simple moving averages or simple moving averages. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB's (the two blue lines) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on this daily chart each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators tell me 8-10 different characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.
Most importantly, I have added a Symmetrical Triangle (very dark, thick black lines). This has been one of the most reliable indicators I have found. This formation typically, but not always, comes out the way it came in and clearly this market came into this Symmetrical Triangle from a what I refer to as a "SUPER-TREND" down. So it could come out of the formation lower, or not. Either way it comes out of the formation by breeching the top line of the triangle or the bottom line of the triangle it could go in that direction and trend for a good long time. That is what I mean when I say It is one of my most reliable formations I have found.
I figured this out by going back and forth from a daily to a weekly chart and applying these indicators to the charts, which can be found here, at the click of a mouse.
Click here for some basics on CME options on futures.