Precious metals: The forecasting problem

February 2, 2015 12:25 PM

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Continuing along that line of thought…

It reminds me of the need to prepare that goes beyond silver. Silver can be the gateway for so many. Many are initially lured in by investment demand, and not necessarily in the spirit of preparedness, or economic-urban survival.

This phenomenon that the science of chance has uncovered is that of stochastic resonance, where small, often random variations in systems triggers much larger changes than otherwise thought. 

Sometimes it can be an aid. 

In one example, perhaps debunking the myth that focus or attention needs quiet conditions is that slight agitation or distraction can rekindle or improve focus. Maybe some students can actually study better with music on in the background. 

But as you can imagine, stochastic resonance (little butterflies) in natural systems is very different from that contained in the fragile realm of artificial (financial) ones. 

In the realm of currency and finance, we can see the snowflakes, butterflies, and the black swans everywhere. But they are massive waves produced by the constant threat of a invisible – though very real - storms in confidence.

When confidence shifts away from the dollar and the greater fiat basket of currencies, and the institutions that depend on it transcendence will occur beyond any concept of speed, or even time, as we know them.

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About the Author

Jeffrey Lewis has been an advocate for silver purchasing for the past six years. He writes regularly about it at silver-coin-investor.com