Economic growth warning

January 26, 2015 08:55 AM
Daily energies analysis

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Commodities across the board are signaling there are major risks to global growth. Whether it is copper hitting a 5-and-a-half-year low or the curretn state of the crude oil and soft products--or even grains and meats--it is clear that commodities are sending clear economic warning signs.

Don't just blame the dollar for commodity weakness; it is what the dollar is saying about growth in the rest of the world that really matters.

Crude closed near a 6-year low on Friday as King Salman of Saudi Aribia, in his first kingly proclamation, assured the markets that there would be no change in oil ministers or oil policy. What that means is OPEC price war continues. So against this backdrop the Greek election and more Russian sanctions are making things look even more bearish.

Syriza and the Independent Greek political parties are going to form a coalition government so it looks like Greece will either get some debt relief from the European Union or we may have to start pricing in an exit from the Euro-zone.

We also have to start pricing in the effect of more sanctions. Russia launched an attack according to the United States and indiscriminately targeted civilians in a rocket attack on the city of Mariupol over the weekend. The action makes it very likely that new sanctions will be imposed on Russia. More santions at a time when the situation in Greece is uncertain does not bode well for commodity demand.

Gas prices are still falling according to Trilby Lundberg. She reported that the average price of a gallon of gasoline fell 13.3 cents in the past two weeks, which is the lowest level since late April 2009. Prices for regular grade gasoline fell to $2.07 a gallon in the survey.

About the Author

Phil Flynn is a senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. Phil is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.