Hard to tell if this is crude's bottom

January 21, 2015 01:58 PM

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) 
Gapping up Wednesday was extended slightly higher after a reaction down had attacked Tuesday's close. That wasn't deep enough to fill the gap, and the optimism prevented the higher high from extending. Its retracement tested the 1.1575 pullback limit that keeps the door open to rallying more durably.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) 
Gapping up Wednesday to attack the 1307.00 overnight high was soon reversed into negative territory testing 1284.50. Avoiding a close under 1287.50 keeps alive the likelihood for retesting 1307.00 .

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 
Extending higher overnight and gapping up to test 18.50 was reversed sharply and quickly down to 18.00, but still held above prior highs. The potential pullback to17.56 remains alive.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) 
Thursday night's 61.8% retracement back to 150-08 reacted down Wednesday to attack 148-23 within 4 ticks, whose break would launch a new extended downleg. Back above 149-24 would instead target a retest of Friday's high up to 151-28.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) 
Popping up in reaction to a leak of Thursday's ECB QE did help to establish that a relevant support was being tested. Aggressive uptrending is likely if a bottom has formed, and any shallower rallying would be suspicious. This week's EIA report is delayed one day until Thursday due to Monday's holiday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) 
Testing 2.98 resistance pre-open and gapping up does help to confirm that the pullback is being stalked. A post-open dip avoided filling the gap back down to Tuesday's close before recovering to a post-open high. It's not an optimal bottom, but Thursday's EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength that could more easily absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.