Will crude oil find bottom this week?

January 12, 2015 09:33 AM
Looking at time not price

Now let’s talk about the stock market. This was a tough week where freedom of the press and our rights as traders came under attack. I could say a lot more about this but I’m going to limit my comments to how it affects our work. I have more to say about these issues in my Twitter account.  As you know, the limit on my bullishness expired on Jan 1. That doesn’t mean I think you sell everything and run for the hills. I’ve shown you charts of the 30’s, 40’s, 60’s and 70’s and I believe we are about to have a return to those roller coaster type conditions. You also know that I believe that we would get hit either last September/October or the next one. We still have a couple of major blood moons to go. It was a few weeks ago where I shared some information released by Starbucks who has their finger on the pulse of up to the minute consumer spending probably better than anyone. As you know, when the Ferguson riots hit Starbucks reported people shut their pocket books. All of you must remember what happened to commerce in this country after 9/11.

Commerce, while the least of the problem in France right now certainly came to a grinding halt last week. I think markets will have a real challenge in this kind of environment. My view is that traders are going to get incredibly grumpy this year given all of the problems in the world. This is different than a wall of worry. Markets don’t climb walls of worry when confronted with either mass protests or military campaigns. Whether this market is similar to the late 30’s or 60’s, there is likely to be a very bumpy road ahead.

Want to talk more market timing? Right now the market highs on Dec. 29 is 377 weeks off the 07 SPX peak. The challenge here is you’ll recall we had a double top in October 2007 where the SPX peaked on Oct. 11 but tech topped 3 weeks later. Right now we are on the back end of one window but not quite hitting the next. In my work it could manifest as tops or bottoms and right now we are getting both! The best near term indication we still have is the rising wedge, which is 3 months in duration.  I’m looking for this pattern to play out.

 

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About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.