Will crude oil find bottom this week?

January 12, 2015 09:33 AM
Looking at time not price

Why is this important? Well, the high came in the first week of May in 2011 on the perfect storm of a chart I’ve been talking about for the past three plus years at 609 trading days and 903dg. It’s still the most amazing top I’ve ever seen. So 1.618 of 123 weeks is 199 while 1.618 of 118 is roughly 191. As you look at this chart, the 5 weeks is separated by all of forty cents. We have a low on the first pivot at 32.40 while the secondary is 32.70. When it comes to stock markets, I look for absolute precision with price and date. When it comes to commodities, not so much. How can we with all these different formulas and interpretations? I can show you the Brent Crude and show you a completely different configuration. Given we have a latitude of several weeks you should know we are coming into the 193rd week off the high. So we are very close to having the downtrend at 1.618 the duration of time for the uptrend.

We also have a first leg down of 39.88. If we take 1.618 of that calculation off the August 2013 high which is 64.52 we get 47.72. If we take that same calculation off the breakdown from last June (if you consider the sideways move a triangle) we get a target of 43.21. If we take that same 64.52 off the high which would mean the relationship of the  A leg down from October 2011 should’ve given us a bottom in the 50 handle. It did not. Right now the low is about a buck off that 47 handle calculation. What that also does is keep the door open in terms of price to that 43 handle calculation. If we consider the real bottom we have on the longer term chart we still have about a month to go to get really close to that 199 week window. Is it feasible to get a February bottom? In terms of the seasonals it certainly is. In any case, however you slice it we should be getting really close. The window is still a few points lower and a few weeks out. Markets don’t always get to that extreme but I can’t rule it out.

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About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.