Will crude oil find bottom this week?
Is this the week we see the final low in crude oil? I’m going to show you a timing condition on the longer term continuation chart nobody has been talking about. This may or may not be significant but since nobody has definitively figured this out, why not take a shot at this?
Obviously there are different representations for oil but the one that has been my rock over the long haul is this particular longer term continuation chart I get from my provider, Trade Navigator. In fact there is just discrepancy in oil that when I look to the various continuation charts on oil, they don’t even agree on the bottom. I could not tell you exactly how they calculate these continuation charts other than to say there is a very complex formula that measures volume according to lot size. All I can tell you is the 056 measures very large trades while the 067 measures the vast majority of the trading community. To really understand futures commodities charts, especially the timing aspect, one has to take all of the charts into consideration. That means the 067, 056 and the front month.
So right now the longer term chart shows a bottom the week of Dec. 19, 2008 with a secondary low the week of Jan. 23, 2009. The 067 shows a bottom the week of Feb. 23, 2009. Most of the time we don’t even have to pay attention to these minute details. But now we do. The reason is that rally leg on the longer term chart is either roughly 123 weeks up or 118 weeks up. See, everyone is so consumed with the price but I’ve been able to do well with financial markets over the years concentrating partially on time. Gann said time was the most important aspect of a technical chart.