The economy in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, capping its strongest six months in more than a decade, as gains in government spending and a shrinking trade deficit made up for a slowdown in household purchases.
Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended September after a 4.6 percent gain in the second quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. It marked the strongest back-to-back readings since the last six months of 2003. The median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3 percent advance.
Growing oil production is limiting imports and contributing to a pickup in manufacturing, allowing the economy to overcome slowing growth in overseas markets from Europe to China. At the same time, job gains and cheaper gasoline are giving American consumers the confidence and the means to spend, brightening the outlook for the holiday-shopping season and helping explain why the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying program yesterday.
The economy “is on a firm footing, and if the labor market continues to get better, that’s the primary support to consumer spending,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, who correctly forecast the growth in GDP. “The demand side of the equation was very healthy in the third quarter.”
Stock futures declined as the faster-than-estimated growth last quarter fueled speculation the economy is be strong enough for the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than estimated. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in December fell 0.3 percent to 1,966.9 at 8:52 a.m. in New York.
Forecasts in the Bloomberg survey of economists ranged from 2.1 percent to 4 percent. Today’s estimate is the first of three for the quarter, with the other releases scheduled for November and December when more information becomes available.
Another report today showed jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 287,000 in the week ended Oct. 25, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The four-week average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, declined to 281,000, the fewest since May 2000.
The report on third-quarter growth is the last major economic indicator before next week’s mid-term election, in which Republicans are expected to expand their majority in the House and perhaps net the six seats they need to take control of the Senate.
President Barack Obama’s fellow Democrats have struggled against the headwinds of his underwater approval rating, which has been mired below 45 percent in recent polls, and stagnant wages.
The second quarter’s 4.6 percent jumped reflected a rebound from a 2.1 percent slump in the first quarter that partly reflected a harsh winter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy, climbed at a 1.8 percent pace last quarter after growing at a 2.5 percent rate in the previous three months, today’s report showed.
The gain in household consumption compared with a 1.9 percent median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. Purchases added 1.2 percentage points to growth.
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