Finding the cyclical yield low

The toughest thing to do is be patient while the market finds the cyclical yield low.

The Fed is being priced out for raising rates in 2015 and at this stage, starting to price in another round of QE. It is possible that the Fed will not raise rates in 2015, but I would give the odds at least 50% they do raise rates in 2015. The chance for another round of QE in 2015 or sooner would not be that high. This is all about position unwind.

About the Author

Martin McGuire, managing director at TJM Institutional Services