The weather may be colder than average in the Great Lakes region, mid-Atlantic and South from Oct. 19 through Oct. 23 after mild readings this week, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The low in Cleveland on Oct. 22 may be 36 degrees Fahrenheit (2 Celsius), 11 less than usual, data from AccuWeather Inc. show.
“The market has to break out of this trading range, and with winter approaching, it has to be pretty soon,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. “We’re going to have a couple of days of above-normal temperatures followed by a few days of below-normal temperatures.”
Natural gas for November delivery rose 3.3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $3.949 per million British thermal units at 9:46 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Volume for all futures traded was 4 percent below the 100-day average. Futures are up 3.4 percent from a year ago.
The low in New York on Oct. 23 may be 38 degrees Fahrenheit, 10 less than average, according to AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania.
About 49 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show. The agency is the energy department’s statistical arm.
Gas stockpiles were 11 percent below the five-year average in the week ended Oct. 3, the biggest deficit for the time of year since at least 2005. Inventories totaled 3.205 trillion cubic feet as of Oct. 3, compared with 3.564 trillion at the same time last year, EIA data show.
Stockpiles may rise to 3.53 trillion at the end of October, the EIA said Oct. 7 in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. Gas demand may climb 1.6 percent to average 72.5 billion cubic feet a day this year, with the industrial sector leading growth.
U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico may reach 4.5 billion cubic feet a day by 2018, Daniel Quigley, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London, said in a note to clients today. Cross-border deliveries totaled 2.2 billion a day in July, EIA data show.
Two pipelines scheduled to begin service this quarter “will have a more meaningful short-term impact in Mexico” as Northeast output keeps the market oversupplied, Quigley said.