We all know that the unemployment situation report that comes out on the first Friday of every month is the most important economic report for creating volatile swings in markets—but it is just one of dozens of reports that come out monthly. There are some doubts about the validity of some reports produced by the government.
Alan Rohrbach @MacroMeister
While the U.S. Employment report is indeed a key influence early each month, the first thing to do is look at the subsets. A constructive headline number can be diminished by weak Hourly Earnings.
And the same is true for other reports. US Retail Sales is also an important guide, because it goes beyond employment statistics to indicate whether consumers are really spending. ‘Retail Sales ex-Autos and Gas’ is the most important due to the distortion from wide swings in energy prices and automobiles being such a high priced item.
That is the sort of thing which can either confirm or refute the accuracy of the headline economic data in many cases.
Lead Analyst and President of Rohr International, Inc. Alan Rohrbach is an international equity index, interest rate and foreign exchange trend advisor. His forte is ‘macro-technical’ analysis of how fundamental influences blend with technical aspects to drive trend psychology. Clients include international banks, hedge funds, other portfolio managers and individual traders.
Copious research has been done to try to determine which numbers have real predictive value for future equity market values. You wouldn’t necessarily know which numbers merit careful consideration from the coverage in the financial media because they must report on every number. Many macroeconomic factors may have only limited relevance for you as a trader.
As with so many things in life, the 80/20 rule applies. In this time of information overload, it’s helpful to focus on the most meaningful factors so you can be nimble in your response to changing market currents.
Source: Chris Potter
At LakeshoreATS, we currently track eight macro factors to help us gauge where the economy, and by proxy equity markets, is headed. Money supply is one little-watched factor that has shown actual predictive value. M2, composed of cash, checking/savings accounts, CDs, and money market funds, is the aggregate mostly closely watched by traders as it is the most inclusive, stable, and the best representation of actual liquid currency available for trade.
When money supply rapidly outpaces economic growth then there are many more dollars being used to purchase the same amount of goods as before. This can be the precursor to inflation run amok. Money supply might not be the single most important factor worth tracking, but it certainly deserves attention as an early warning signal that the Fed might need to take action that could negatively impact markets.
Kara Boniecka is the founder of LakeshoreATS and the author of Avoiding Bear Traps: Easy Macro Factors for Smart Traders, which provides concise guidelines for deciphering economic news and navigating market corrections of all sizes.
Matt Weller @MWellerFX
It’s easy to get lost in the cacophony of global fundamental reports that are released on a monthly basis, so it’s important for traders to identify what data points the market is focusing on at any given time. While jobs and economic activity have been strengthening for years, the fundamental laggard in the post-GFC recovery has been inflation.
Therefore, I am most focused on central banks’ preferred measures of inflation. For U.S. traders, this means keeping an eye on the Fed’s preferred Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) readings, rather than the more widely-followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings. Likewise, European traders should keep an eye on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the ECB’s favorite measure of prices.
If inflation starts to perk up in the second half of this year and heading into 2015, central banks will finally be forced to raise interest rates from the current subdued levels, and global markets can return to a more “normal” environment.
Matt Weller is the Senior Technical Analyst for FOREX.com. He contributes regular updates on various currencies and commodities throughout the day.
Before we begin looking at specific reports, it is important to keep in mind that different reports will have different influences depending on where the market is in its development cycle. For example, is the market turning from a down move as in March 2009, or at all time highs in 2014?
It is also important to keep in a global context how this report compares to other economic and geopolitical news occurring in other parts of the world. This is why there may be a very bullish report in the United States, but the market trades lower because other events or reports have occurred in other parts of the world and has dampened the impact of the U.S. report.
I am very interested in fundamental reports and I want to know if there is a report coming during the trading session. However, I do not trade the result of the report—rather I trade how the market absorbs the report based upon price action.
In the current market environment, I pay attention to Housing Starts, Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Goods orders, Jobless Claims, GDP, Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg. Index, International Trade, FOMC meeting announcement, Consumer and Producer Price Index and Retail Sales.
Dan Gramza is President of Gramza Capital Management Inc. and DMG Advisors, LLC. He provides daily market updates from around the globe on subjects ranging from the Nasdaq and currencies to crude oil and grains.
Matt McKinney is a full-service options broker at Zaner Group both buying and selling energies, metals, grains, softs, currencies and the 30-year bond market.
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