Benchmark indexes rose to new records today. Jobless claims decreased by 36,000 to 280,000 in the period ended Sept. 13. The pound strengthened for a third day versus the euro, reaching its highest level in two years.
Equities: The E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESZ14) is up 7.5 points today to 2001.25. Our next technical market profile target for this market is at the 2016 level. We believe the market will get there soon. The fact that the Fed left the “considerable period” language in the statement indicates that while they believe the US economy is strengthening, they are in no hurry to raise rates. 1992 is our key support level.
Bonds: The U.S. 30-year bonds are down 7 ticks to 135’24. It looks like the bonds are in a downtrend, and we would not be surprised to see bonds head further south. At some point, if bonds really do head a lot lower, we believe the market may look at higher yields as a bearish headwinds for equities, but not yet.
Currencies: The Pound is the item to watch today and tomorrow as the Scotland voting is taking place today. The Pound has rallied recently because it looks like the market thinks the vote will be a “No.” The USD is staying above the 84 level, even though it is down slightly this day to 84.42. We believe the overall trend of the USD is bullish, and would not be shocked to see it breach 85.
Commodities: Many key commodities are down today, with gold down $9 to $1,227, hitting a low of just below $1217 this AM. Corn, wheat, and soybeans traded lower today, with soybeans making a new low just above $9.70. Our next market profile downside target area is $9.62-$9.64. We believe there might be significant buying if the market gets below $9.55.
WTI Crude Oil is down $1.30 to $93.12 today (NYMEX:CLV14)l. Cocoa has been on a strong rally over the past 7 days, trading above $3200 today. We believe this rally may be overdone as we have heard that fears of Ebola disrupting cocoa crops is stoking this rally.