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Forex Market Movers: Weekly Technical Outlook

Technical Developments to Watch:

  • EUR/USD consolidating in a tight range at 1-year lows ahead of ECB
  • GBP/USD nearing top of 2-month bearish channel near 1.6630
  • USD/JPY rally stalled at 104.12 resistance, but support remains near 103.00
  • AUD/USD in play, rates still trapped in .9200-.9450 range
* Bias determined by the relationship between price and various EMAs. The following hierarchy determines bias (numbers represent how many EMAs the price closed the week above): 0 – Strongly Bearish, 1 – Slightly Bearish, 2 – Neutral, 3 – Slightly Bullish, 4 – Strongly Bullish.

** All data and comments in this report as of Friday’s European session close ** 


  • EUR/USD stabilized in the mid-1.3100s after gapping to new 1-year lows last week
  • MACD shows bearish momentum, but Slow Stochastics now in oversold territory
  • Chance for an oversold bounce remains, but rallies likely to be short-lived toward 1.3250-1.3300

The EUR/USD gapped to a new one-year low under 1.3200 to start last week, but rates merely consolidated in a tight range from there. The outlook for this week is similar to our outlook from the previous few weeks: the downtrend remains strong, as shown by the continually falling MACD, but the Slow Stochastics are in oversold territory, raising the risk of an oversold bounce this week. Conservative traders may look to fade any bounces into resistance at the 20-day EMA near 1.3250 and bearish trend line around 1.3300.

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