Euro takes turn for the worse

Market movers: Forex Weekly Technical Outlook

Technical Developments to Watch:

  • EUR/USD stabilizing near longer-term Fib support at 1.3247, bounce possible
  • GBP/USD collapse testing minor support at 1.6550, bias still toward selling bounces
  • USD/JPY pressing key resistance in the 104.00 zone, but market looking to buy pullbacks toward 103.00
  • NZD/USD in play, potential false break below .8400 support last week
 * Bias determined by the relationship between price and various EMAs.  The following hierarchy determines bias (numbers represent how many EMAs the price closed the week above): 0 – Strongly Bearish, 1 – Slightly Bearish, 2 – Neutral, 3 – Slightly Bullish, 4 – Strongly Bullish.

** All data and comments in this report as of Friday’s European session close ** 


The EUR/USD broke down to a new 11-month low to trade all the way down to the mid-1.3200s last week. The drop was foreshadowed by the break of a symmetrical triangle on Tuesday and extended the longer-term downtrend off the early summer high near 1.40. Now, with the Slow Stochastics back near oversold territory and the MACD indicator flat-lining, the risks are growing for an oversold bounce in EURUSD. To the topside, converging 20-day EMA and bearish trend line resistance in the mid-1.3300s may cap any bounces, whereas a break below 1.3250 support would open the door for more selling this week.



  • EUR/USD dropped to 11-month lows last week
  • MACD moving sideways, Slow Stochastics back near oversold territory
  • Chance for an oversold bounce as long as long-term 38.2% Fib support at 1.3247 holds


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