Crude: Supply, demand, risks

Shifting Risk

Risks in crude oil (NYMEX:CLU14) are rapidly changing from risks to supply to risks to demand and now risk to future production projects.

Petroleum products already each from sinking demand expectations and reduction of geo-political risk fell hard after reports that the refinery in Coffeyville Kansas might come back on line sooner than anticipated. Oil Futures tried to stay resilient but gave in to weakness after Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said that he had agreed to relinquish power.

In the Ukraine government, officials are expecting that Russian Convoy to see if it's for humanitarian needs or just a trick to help start a Russian invasion and help Russian separatists. So far Ukraine says it has not received paper work from the Red Cross to inspect the cargos. Even Vladimir Putin was trying to sound like a peacenik by saying that Russia would do everything in its power to halt the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which means either the sanctions are staring to hurt along with the plunging price oil or he is just trying to sound like a nice guy before he uses big convoy as a pretext for an invasion. Yeah, breaker one nine this here's the Rubber Duck you got a copy on me Pig Pen, c'mon comrade let's move it.

What may be worse for Putin than sanctions is the falling cost of oil. Mr. Putin's economy is dependent on oil and natural gas to survive. 30 percent of the country's gross domestic product and 80 percent of its exports are oil and gas. And if prices keep falling it won't just be Russia having problems.

Reuters news reports that "more than half a trillion dollars of investments in major oil projects over the next decade are at risk from high costs and low crude oil prices, Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) said in a report on Friday, warning that shareholders' returns could suffer. To meet anticipated future demand, oil majors including BP , Chevron, and Eni, are spending billions to extract harder-to-reach oil, for example from Canadian oil sands and deep below the Atlantic Ocean.


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