E-Mini S&P 500(CME:ESU4)
Weaker volume on the up day's could be telling a story.
Equity indexes have held well in the United States despite a pull back into the close yesterday upon news that Russia is now making an unwelcomed humanitarian effort in Ukraine.
Furthermore, we are seeing pullbacks in Europe this morning with the DAX down roughly 0.5% upon an absolutely awful German Sentiment number; like much of the data expectations we have seen in the U.S. during the recovery, expectations for this release were already low and still missed by a wide margin.
The S&P reached a high yesterday of 1941 running above major three star resistance and recovery target at 1936.50-1938 for a brief time before failing and closing at 1932.50. The market has continued to hold major two star support at 1929.75-1931; the levels have continued to come in terrific giving traders a map on this bounce from the lows. Traders anticipate JOLTs Job Openings and Fed Budget Balance ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales and press conference from two Fed Members. This market is headline driven and traders must treat it that way.
Resistance - 1936.50-1938***, 1942-1944**, 1947*, 1952.50-1954***
Support –1929.75-1931**, 1923.50*, 1917-1919***, 1913**, 1910.50* 1903-1904**
We remain in sell a rally mode. A close below $96.55 and bears take control.
Crude oil (NYMEX:CLU14) took a sharp dip early this morning after the IEA lowered its demand forecast of world Oil siting a lower outlook for the global economy. This sent WTI retesting major support at 96.82-97.12 which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The market tested our major two star resistance level of 98.60 yesterday failing at that level for the third time in two weeks. Resistance at this level gave the bears a well-defined trade and encouraged a path of least resistance towards the 200 day moving average.
German Sentiment was a major miss this morning and has also had a hand in keeping the oil trade weak. Despite concerns that the refinery in Kansas may have a wider effect on demand of Oil out of Cushing, Okla. API inventories expect a drawdown of 5.5 million barrels later today in what will be a closely watched report today with more emphasis on EIA tomorrow. This market is headline driven but still a close outside of first resistance or first support will help create a directional trade.
Resistance - 98.60**, 100.00**, 100.34-100.44**, 100.84***
Pivot - 97.75-97.90
Support – 96.82-97.12***, 96.30-96.45*, 95.80**, 94.30***