Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Thursday, Aug. 7, 2014.
- Bar 1 - The emini is waiting for fri to decide high of week the candle should look on the weekly chart. Gap up so two legs up from yesterday lower low major trend reversal. Fail, failure breakout 60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average and high of yesterday but doji so low probability swing sell or short
- Bar 2 - Bear bar, probably more down
- Bar 3 - Consecutive bear bars, always in short
- Bar 5 - Opening reversal, big bar, but big down, big up so sideways. Still always in short, probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher. Limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping
- Bar 6 - Breakout pullback sell or short but doji, bull bar, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 8 - Opening reversal second entry buy, ok swing buy or long, stop below 7 or 4, but not quite to moving average so low probability. Higher probability to wait for a breakout
- Bar 11 - Possible triangle 4 7, inside bar, close on high, ok swing buy or long
- Bar 12 - Weak entry bar, but still ok swing buy or long, stop below 11. Probably always in long
- Bar 14 - Double top 7, 2nd reversal after 11 buy or long. Many bulls will exit and wait. Ok swing sell or short, but small sell below or sellers below or signal bar so lower probability
- Bar 15 - Big bear bar, breakout, more down, always in short
- Bar 16 - Follow through, more down
- Bar 17 - Big tail, still sell the close, but probably only 1-3 more bars down before trading range
The Emini's dominant price action feature of the today is the failed breakout above yesterday's high, forming a large low 2 sell setup on the open (ABC bear flag). For today's real-time update, see Intraday Market Update. Last week was a strong bear BO on the weekly chart, but the bar is at the MA. This is week is the follow-through bar. The bulls want a bull body on this week's bar as a sign that last week was just a PB to the weekly MA. The bears want a bear body, and especially a big bear char that closes far below the weekly moving average, to confirm last week's bear reversal and increase the chances of lower prices. For more on the current S&P500 and Emini weekly charts, see Weekly market update.