I take my coffee strong

Cocoa

Futures closed moxed in some consolidation trading. The market continues to hold the rally made after the world grind data was announced, but has not been able to extend gains. West Africans have been selling and as arrivals have been very strong at ports, but arrivals should tail; off now as the midcrop harvest should be coming to a close. Demand remains a primary driver of the market and stronger demand is expected to continue well into next year. Demand and prices for Butter remain very strong. West African production continues to be strong and prospects for strong production for the coming crop are good. Indonesian conditions have also been good, but it is too dry in Malaysia.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, with best amounts and coverage in Indonesia. Temperatures should aeaverage near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.687 million bags. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3090 September, with resistance at 3230, 3270, and 3300 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2025 and 2090 September. Support is at 1980, 1960, and 1930 September, with resistance at 2050, 2080, and 2110 September.

 

FCOJ 

Orange Juice closed higher as a hurricane developed off the coast of Florida. The system is not expected to hurt groves, but created some speculative buying interest. The system looks to bring beneficial precipitation to Florida this week after bringing some needed precipitation to the Carribbean Islands. Domestic demand reports remain poor, although exports have been stronger to cover some of the gap. Tropical weather patterns have remained mostly quiet until now, and the current system looks to be mostly beneficial. Traders still anticípate another short production year next year due to the greening disease. The next Florida production looks good amid good production conditions, but will be less as producers cope with the disease. Production áreas in Brazil need more precipitation but are looking at dry conditions. Weak overall Florida production and the overall dry weather in Brazil that could impact production there continues to support prices longer term. 

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered afternoon showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should be mostly dry and warm.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 138.00, and 136.00 September, with resistance at 146.00, 150.00, and 152.00 September.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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