Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Friday, August 1, 2014.
- Bar 1 - I have to leave early today. Today is Friday, but there are no weekly support and/or resistance targets near. Yesterday's low and close are targets on the daily chart, as is the June 12 low at 1917.50, which is the bottom of the channel that followed the strong breakout up from the May 15 low. Once down to the channel low, the market usually enters a trading range. Yesterday was such a strong bear breakout that a two legs down is likely after any 20-40 profit target bounce. Final flag yesterday 2 hour possible triangle, fail, failure breakout low of yesterday, wedge 47 72, strong bull bar, ok swing buy or long for possible low of the day and two legs up. After yesterday sell climax, today probably will have at least a 20 bar rally at some point. Pink line below = June 12 bottom of channel on daily
- Bar 2 - Strong follow through, always in long, 50% chance 1 will be low of next couple of hours. Tight channel so probably pullback soon, but buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 3 - Double top 81, but strong 1 2 so always in long and buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Low probability sell or short
- Bar 4 - Breakout pullback buy or long but need stop below 1. Tight channel so sideways likely
- Bar 8 - Two legged pullback in a bear move in bear, but always in long. Don't buy or long since might test below low of yesterday. 12 point rally above open of day so bear trend day unlikely so either trading range day or bull day. Trading range day most likely with close of day around open of day
- Bar 11 - Double bottom 4, higher low major trend reversal, but not enough bars. Big up, big down so sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and possible trading range
- Bar 15 - Lower high major trend reversal, head and shoulders top, bear reversal bar moving average, two legged pullback in a bear move 12, but middle of trading range day. Ok swing sell or short for test low of the day
- Bar 17 - 3 bars down so sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, more down
- Bar 19 - Breakout, more down
- Bar 22 - Expanding triangle 72 1, micro double bottom at daily bottom of channel = pink line, but 8 bear bars so sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, sideways more likely. Probably two legged pullback in a bear move soon
- Bar 24 - Breakout pullback sell or short, targets below, but trading range day likely so need swing stop at least above 18. Sideways likely after 23 strong bull bar
- Bar 27 - Breakout, follow through, targets below, sell the close, stop above 26 or 24
The dominant price action feature of the today is the big gap down and the breakout below monthly support. Today is forming a bear reversal bar on the monthly chart, and the monthly bar closes today. The market is at the top of the channel on the weekly chart, so the odds favor a reversal down to at least the bottom of the channel over the next couple of months, which is just below 1900. For today's real-time update, see Intraday Market Update. For more on the current S&P 500 and E-mini weekly charts, see Weekly market update.