Top 3 fundamental reasons why I am a crude oil bear

The top three "fundamental" reasons that I'm a crude oil (NYMEX:CLU14) bear are:

1) Weak fundamentals, such as a curb in demand.

2) Sanctions against Russia, seemingly, can only hurt the overall economy in that part of the world as well as in Europe.

3) Even with bullish news, like the GDP number and a fire at a big refinery fire in Kansas, prices keep falling.


My technical opinion

First and foremost in my professional opinion, we have what in the Industry is called a “falling knife” as the market seems to be dropping straight down on the chart with no interruptions. Traders and brokers came up with this term because if you were to lay underneath of it (the market), surely it would make a clean cut right through you.

Hence, the “falling knife” or it could also mean don’t go long here, you’ll end up bloody, injured, or just plain wrong, maybe.

On the chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators. They are the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA, blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB's, yellow lines) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on these daily charts.

To qualify for a "Super-Trend" down and a full blown sell signal here is what I need. I need the 9-day SMA (red line) to move down and under the 20-day SMA (green line) as both indicators point lower and the market trades below the 9-day SMA. I have that on the chart below.


Daily November crude oil chart

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