Euro downtrend could last rest of the year

EUR/USD has turned lower last month from around 1.3700 where called a completed three wave rally on the smaller time frames. Three wave patterns are corrective within ongoing trend so we believe that EUR/USD will continue to fall in coming weeks, maybe even months back to 1.320 after recent accelerating bearish price action. With that said, it appears that EUR/USD has accomplished an ending diagonal near to 1.4000 a few months back, so fall could be quite strong in the rest of the year ahead that may bring prices back to the start of that ending diagonal; to 1.2700. Based on latest price data we see 1.3650 as critical zone; as long it will hold trend is down.


 
EUR/USD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis


EUR/USD is trading sharply lower for the last 30 days, away from 1.3700. We can see clear swings without any overlaps, refereed as a impulse in progress. At the moment we are focused on an extended structure in wave (iii) that must be made by five subwaves. As such, we suspect that current rally from the low after the NFP report from Friday, represents a corrective pause within ongoing decline. Sooner or later price will revisit the lows and even hit 1.3330 area where we see 261.8% Fibonacci extension target for wave (iii). Resistance is at 1.3440 followed by 1.3460.
 

EUR/USD 4-hour Elliott Wave Analysis

 

 

About the Author

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. He also is founder of forex services on www.ew-forecast.com. EW-Forecast.com provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website: http://www.ew-forecast.com/

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