High noon

E-minis just pierced overnight lows.

I noted previously that I was giving sellers a bigger benefit of the doubt. My 1926.00 sell signal was allowed to run through its minimum potential 1922.75 objective. That was this morning’s bias-down signal, which would normally define the bias environment’s lower-end.

It was probed by nearly 6 points down to 1917.00 before a bounce attacked it to within 4 ticks. Just 1 more tick would have neutralized its attraction officially. But I still gave sellers a bigger benefit of the doubt, and the 1910.50 overnight lows were just retested.

Oversold RSIs at the low require its retest. If a corrective bounce were going to develop, then the noon hour is its opportunity. But a corrective bounce is not at all required.

Much more important than the specific calculable levels is the general timing. The pre-open and post-open rallies have expended a lot of energy, but Friday’s noon hour is being entered under the open’s lows. Being new trend lows only exacerbates the matter, that being two days of illiquidity just hours away.

Had a morning drop accelerated and extended into the noon hour from above prior lows, then its sponsorship would have been weak hands, fearful of being long into the weekend. This is different. The morning’s bounce was fear of not being long. And stronger hands have used that opportunity to sell — stronger hands, since they retraced the entire recovery.

The afternoon’s bias signal will be a big determinant. First, a noon hour bounce would be revealing, too.

About the Author
Rod David

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.

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