Dollar didn't like jobs number

The dollar dropped from a four-month high after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast last month, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will move up the pace interest-rate increases forecast for next year.

The dollar erased advances against the yen and euro as payrolls trailed estimates and the unemployment rate increased. An index of developing-nation currencies fell to the lowest since March. The pound dropped to a seven-week low after U.K. manufacturing grew less than forecast. Traders scaled back odds the Fed will raise the target for its benchmark to at least 0.5 percent by July 2015 to 59 percent from 65 percent yesterday, based on futures contracts.

“The expectations going into the report were pretty inflated,” Mark McCormick, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Agricole SA in New York, said of the payrolls data. “The rally in the dollar got a little bit ahead of itself.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,020.23 of 10:21 a.m. in New York after earlier rising 0.2 percent. It touched 1,023.42, the highest since March 20, and is up 0.6 percent on the week for a third five-day gain. The gauge climbed 1.9 percent in July to wipe out a 1.6 percent first-half decline.

The U.S. currency fell 0.3 percent to $1.3426 per euro to erase a weekly advance. The dollar dropped 0.1 percent to 102.69 yen after 10 days of gains, the longest streak since 2001. The euro appreciated 0.2 percent to 137.88 yen.

 

Emerging Losses

Indonesia’s rupiah dropped 1.9 percent to drag emerging- market currencies lower, with the Indian rupee declining 1 percent. The Turkish lira led gainers, up 0.5 percent.

A gauge that tracks the performance of 20 developing-nation currencies versus the dollar fell 0.2 percent to 91.4862, the lowest level since March 26.

Sterling slid as U.K. manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in a year, Markit Economics said today. An industry index slipped to 55.4 from a revised 57.2 in June, the London-based data provider said. Analysts forecast a reading of 57.2 for July, from a previously reported 57.5 in June, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

The pound fell 0.3 percent to $1.6840 after touching $1.6814, the lowest level since June 12. It has weakened 12 of the past 13 days.

 

Summer ‘Tone’

The 209,000 payrolls advance followed a 298,000 gain in June that was stronger than previously reported, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 230,000 increase. The jobless rate climbed to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent in June as more people entered the labor force. Wages and hours were unchanged from June.

The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, increased to 62.9 percent from 62.8 percent a month earlier, which matched the lowest since March 1978.

“The market is reacting to the headline number, which came in lower than expectation, but we’re impressed by the upward revision of the prior month, and the improving participation rate,” said Michael Woolfolk, a global-markets strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York. “This week has really set the tone for the summer. Investors should look to sell the euro and the yen” against the dollar.

Policy makers are monitoring “significant underutilization of labor resources” and inflation as they curtail stimulatory bond purchases, according to a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee this week.

The Fed plans to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after ending its unprecedented program of bond buying, it said after meeting July 29-30. The central bank trimmed asset purchases to $25 billion this week and is on track to finish the program in October.

 

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