Daily Price Action: E-Mini S&P 500

Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Thursday, July 31, 2014.

  • Bar 1 - I have to leave early today. Today is the last day of the month so target are open of month at 1957 green line, close of last month at 1952.50 blue line, low of month at 1947.75 pink line, and the 60 minimum or minutes trading range low at 1946 yellow line. They will be magnets late in the if the market breaks below them early. The bears are trying to create a reversal bar on the monthly chart, which is overbought. Gap down, bear body, but tail, far below moving average so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher
  • Bar 2 - Fail, failure breakout low of yesterday, but tail. Low probability buy or long, but possible low of the day. Breakout pullback sell or short but far below moving average so low probability sell or short. Probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping
  • Bar 3 - Fail, failure breakout low of yesterday, micro double bottom, but bear body. Ok swing buy or long but higher probability to wait for a breakout
  • Bar 4 - Possible always in long, but higher probability to wait for follow through
  • Bar 5 - Two legged pullback in a bear move 2, ok swing sell or short. Bulls will exit below or below 3
  • Bar 7 - Fail, failure breakout low of yesterday second entry buy, micro double bottom, but bear bodies. Possible low of the day, but low probability, still always in short
  • Bar 10 - 2 bull bars, but middle of bear leg so bears will sell or short for channel. Bulls need breakout
  • Bar 11 - Breakout pullback sell or short, ok swing and possible scalp
  • Bar 15 - Wedge, micro double bottom but 3 strong bear bars so low probability. Possible low of the day and two legs up so ok swing buy or long. Trading range more likely than reversal. Several reversal attempts today so probably bear leg in trading range, so odds favor rally at some point to create trading range. Breakout pullback sell or short, measuring gap below 8, but doji, weak bear channel, so low probability. Bear trend so ok swing
  • Bar 21 - Breakout pullback sell or short, but one legged pullback in a bear move after sell climax at measured move support is low probability so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
  • Bar 24 - Two legged pullback in a bear move but tight trading range, sell climax, measured move, far from moving average so low probability. Tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. Might be trend resumption or trend reversal
  • Bar 26 - Possible triangle 19 23 so possible final flag. Ok sell or short but must be ready for reversal
     

pending chart 3230

The dominant price action feature of the today is the big gap down and the breakout below monthly support. Today is forming a bear reversal bar on the monthly chart, and the monthly bar closes today. The market is at the top of the channel on the weekly chart, so the odds favor a reversal down to at least the bottom of the channel over the next couple of months, which is just below 1900. For today's real-time update, see Intraday Market Update. For more on the current S&P500 and Emini weekly charts, see Weekly market update 1 I have to leave early today. Today is the last day of the month so tgt are OOM at 1957 green line, CLM at 1952.50 blue line, LM at 1947.75 pink line, and the 60 min TR L at 1946 yellow line. They will be magnets late in the if the mkt breaks below them early. The bears are trying to create a RB on the monthly chart, which is overbought. G down, bear body, but tail, far below MA so prob BB SA.

[more Bar-by-Bar Analysis, Daily Webinar and Trading Course info at www.brookspriceaction.com and www.brookstradingcourse.com]

 

Ed Note: Every day traders can listen to live, streaming squawk box commentary on FUTURESmag.com coming directly from the S&P trading pits in Chicago.

About the Author
Al Brooks

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.

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