I am hearing...VIX Nov 21-30 call spread paid up to .70 in 88,000 earlier eveb before half of the current fall in the S&P (CME:SPU14) Index happened. This index has jumped 1.7 today or nearly 12% from yesterday’s close. The recent high from July 17 is nearby at 15.38. There had been some bullish developments since historic lows were recently reached (see chart) including two bullish inverted hammers and a bullish window opened. We should therefore not be terribly surprised by the jump on Volatility.
There is room for greater volatility still as the Fed has come to a point where the direction of policy is not as clear. The subtle upgrades to economic performance and labor market language in the FOMC statement yesterday as well as mild improvement to the classification for inflation conditions possibly marks a turn toward a more speedy exit from excessive accommodation than had previously been considered by many.
Additionally, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser dissented from the vote yesterday because, in his own words, ‘the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for “a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,” because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee’s goals.’