Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Thursday, July 24, 2014.
- Bar 1 - The blue line is the all time high = high of yesterday. Red line above = 1988.25 = measured move from gap on daily chart. New all time high, bull body, but small bar, 1t body, trading range bar so buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher
- Bar 3 - Opening reversal at moving average but 1t body, small bar. Okay swing but higher probability if wait for breakout
- Bar 4 - Fail, failure breakout high of yesterday second entry sell bug bull body. Ok swing for high of the day but higher probability to wait for breakout
- Bar 7 - Bear breakout but big tail. 3 consecutive bear bars, always in short, sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, but big tail so might test up 1-2 points so trade small or wait
- Bar 9 - Breakout pullback sell or short but 2 bull bars so lower probability. Always in short, ok swing sell or short, but might be buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 11 - Fail, failure breakout 81, double bottom but bear body. Still trading range price action, limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping
- Bar 13 - Two legged pullback in a bear move sell or short but 3 bull bars with close on high. More trading range price action, probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping. Low probability swing sell or short
- Bar 18 - Three inside bars in a row, probably always in long since 4 bull bars with close on high even tho still below 4 high top of bear reversal
- Bar 26 - Expanding triangle top so higher high major trend reversal, parabolic wedge 13 21, 17t fail, failure 11, 10t above 15 wedge bear flag, ok swing sell or short but 12 bar bull microchannel and probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Swing stop for bulls below 18 or 14. 70% chance 7 will remain low of the day and day will be either a weak bull trend or a trading range day
- Bar 27 - Breakout pullback buy or long but 2 bear bars, close to moving average. Always in long so ok to buy or long but need swing stop since probably will test moving average
- Bar 41 - Two legged pullback in a bear move sell or short but probably still always in long as long as holds above 15 or low of the day. Swing sell or short only. Possible two legged pullback in a bear move final flag, wedge bull flag 27 37
- Bar 44 - Follow through from 43 breakout but still above low of the day and might still be always in long. So far, trading range day, so buy low sell high and scalp. Strong enough breakout so probably two legs down, but trading range day so probably reversal up soon, better to wait for a strong bull breakout or second entry buy. Might be sell vacuum in trading range day. Bulls will buy or long here
The dominant price action feature of the today is the bull trend opening reversal and the move to a new all-time high. There is a measured move target at 1988.25 based on the May 27 gap on the daily chart, and the E-min S&P 500 (CME:ESU14)i should get there soon, but it will probably correct down to around 1900 soon whether or not it reaches the target above. The market is at the top of the channel on the weekly chart, so the odds favor a reversal down to the bottom of the channel over the next couple of months, just below 1900. For today's real-time update, see Intraday Market Update. For more on the current S&P500 and Emini weekly charts, see Weekly market update.