Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Wednesday, July 23, 2014.
- Bar 1 - The blue line is the all time high = high of yesterday. Red line above = measured move from 60 minimum or minutes. Yesterday gapped up and the pink lines below are the gap. Fail, failure breakout but 2t tail so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower at moving average. Ok swing sell or short for outside down bar day. Yesterday was small so today might be outside down bar.
- Bar 4 - Opening reversal at moving average but only 2t body and in yesterday tight trading range so sideways likely. Low probability swing buy or long
- Bar 6 - Double top 1 but strong 4 5 so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower and more sideways, but ok swing sell or short for high of the day. Higher probability to wait for breakout up and or down. Breakout mode, limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping
- Bar 8 - Double bottom 4, opening reversal second entry buy, but doji, breakout mode, swing or wait. Bulls need to get above 1 top of bear leg
- Bar 11 - Two legged pullback in a bear move, ok swing sell or short, but holding above moving average, good 4, so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 12 - Outside up bar, fail, failure two legged pullback in a bear move, always in long, especially if get breakout above 1. 60 minimum or minutes measured move target just above
- Bar 13 - Follow through, but tail. Always in long, more up. Tail so less strong and many bulls will take partial profits at 2 points
- Bar 15 - Parabolic wedge 5 10, possible high of the day, ok swing sell or short, but probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower for two legs up. Weak breakout so might get pullback below 5 high. Higher probability for bears to wait for strong breakout, especially below 12 bottom of bull breakout.
- Bar 18 - Breakout pullback buy or long but doji, lots of trading range price action. Still always in long, ok swing buy or long, stop below 12, but probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and pullback at least to moving average. Bears will sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher for swing, but more likely two legs up
- Bar 24 - Two legged pullback in a bull move but 10 bars without bull body, just above moving average. Might be sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher for test 5 high. Bulls need swing stop or wait. Weak follow through increases chance of deep pullback or reversal
- Bar 26 - Lower high major trend reversal but not enough bars. Tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop, limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping
- Bar 28 - Possible triangle 18 24 at moving average, always in long, ok swing for mmu, but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. Still gap with 1 high so possible measuring gap 13. Breakout mode
The dominant price action feature of the today is the bull trend opening reversal at the moving average and the breakout to a new all time high. The market is at the top of the channel on the weekly chart, so the odds favor a reversal down to the bottom of the channel over the next couple of months, just below 1900. For today's real-time update, see Intraday Market Update. For more on the current S&P 500 and E-mini weekly charts, see Weekly market update.