Tuesday afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
Bias-up: above 1988.75 1982.75
…would target 1994.25 1988.50
Bias-down: under 1980.75 1975.00
…would target 1675.25 1969.25
Signal status: waiting for trigger
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
– A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
– “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence
Slow and steady advance persisted through a timing window.
The 1981.25 renewed bias-up target was tested to within 3 ticks. Being the product of a renewed signal, its test wasn’t required and it doesn’t become “unfinished business above.”
But the likelier target for probing new highs has been 1982.00, which remains untouched. And the reluctance to touch even 1981.25 suggests the overnight pessimism (which we discussed during the Market Tour) remains influential. And that makes 1984.75 increasingly likely to be visited, too.
Meanwhile, the minimum outstanding objective for probing the (July 3) holiday high has been fulfilled. So, although upside potential remains outstanding that I expect to be met, now a downleg can gain traction. Another geopolitical surprise our hawkish Fed speak could launch a durable and damaging downleg.